Thursday, September 06, 2007

Poll Thoughts

1. My first reaction was "Wooooooo!"
2. Yes, there are an awful lot of LIHOP people out there. And it's not like we can quibble about "Well, they could have read the question the wrong way." This is about as specific a question as you can imagine a pollster asking on this topic. However, as with all these questions, you have to look at the specific crosstabs closely for other patterns. First, the demographic most likely to agree with LIHOP is the 18-29-year-olds, with an astonishing 62.5% agreeing that the government knew the attacks were coming but consciously let them proceed. But among older demographics the numbers didn't even break 25%. And the pattern with regard to education holds true as well here; 35% of high school grads with no college, 28.2% of those with some college, and 21.1% of those with a college degree.
3. The numbers do portend at least some problems for the Democrats. Over a third of those describing themselves as liberal or progressive buy into LIHOP, although, oddly enough, the progressives seem to be very much less likely to buy into MIHOP with only 1.7% there as compared to 5.0% for liberals. Note: because of the much smaller number of respondents in those categories these percentages may have a very high margin of error and may even be not meaningful. It's an appalling number, but we haven't been battling LIHOP here much at all.
4. There is no way to spin this positively for the MIHOP crowd. Dylan may say that he wants people to come away from his film believing in LIHOP at a minimum, but this movement is not about LIHOP. I mean, who's the guru of 9-11 Troof who's selling the Lite version? Paul Thompson?
5. In short, I am very, very happy today!

Bottoms up!

Update: You know what the Truthers' real problem here is? Managing expectations. They have oversold their movement to the point where a 4.6% MIHOP result seems staggeringly low, even though it fits far better with what we see than the oft-quoted 36% from the Scripps-Howard poll last summer.

I would caution against overinterpretation of the LIHOP figure; something is clearly wrong there as a little bit of analysis reveals. Let's assume that there are liberals and others out there who may believe Bush and/or Cheney should be impeached, but not at all over the events of 9-11? Do you believe that animal exists? I certainly do; I think their numbers are pretty substantial.

Then where do they fit in this poll? I think we can safely assume that if you believe the Bush Administration either made or allowed 9-11 to happen, really believe it, then you must favor impeachment, right? Then why is the total for impeachment of Bush and/or Cheney (308) lower than the total for LIHOP and MIHOP combined (312)?

Look at the wording of the question; it's "certain elements in the US government"... that wording is vague enough to apply to lots of "elements".

BTW, they seem to have stage-managed the support for a new investigation part of the poll. Look at 403 and 404 as questions designed to build support for 405 (at which they actually fail pretty spectacularly). 403 tells them that if they believe they've been told the whole truth, they're in a 16% minority, at which point they get the 50.7% figure they're citing, with 510 people supporting a Congressional investigation. Then 404 hits them with the "Troof" about Building 7, at which point they get 667 people in agreement that the 9-11 Commission should have investigoogled, err, investigated it. And then 405 falls flat on its face, with only 369 supporting a new independent investigation.

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