Math is Hard
I got an e-mail yesterday from the AE911Truth jokers. Yeah, somehow I ended up on their mailing list.
Dear Supporter,
I look at what the High-Rise Safety Initiative has already accomplished since they launched their petition drive last month, and I am in awe! In just five weeks they have collected nearly 35,000 signatures from NYC voters, and they are currently on pace to reach their goal of 70,000 by the end of June.
Hmm, it has been a while since I took algebra in 7th grade, but if they have collected under 35,000 signatures in 5 weeks, and there are just over 3 weeks left until the end of June, in what mathematical system are they "on pace" to reach their goal of 70,000?
And they want us to believe in their scientific acumen...
posted by James B. @ 8:05 AM
65 comments
65 Comments:
Wow, 35000, that's almost 0.5% of the population of the city. Also, "high rise safety initiative"? Just a guess, but framing it as such probably got a lot more people to sign than framing it as an investigation into magic thermite and invisible silent explosives would have.
Math is certainly hard when you insist on re-interpreting "they are currently on pace" as "their average rate over the last five weeks puts them on pace".
Yes, Brian, if all goes well, they'll get 0.8% of the population of New York to sign that petition, instead of 0.4%. What a resounding success!
You knw this was coming: The male half of the Las Vegas shooters was a full-bore truther about everything. 9-11, Sandy Hook, Boston Marathon, chemtrails, you name it. He was also a regular over at Infowars under his own name. His then-fiancee posted there too. Including about killing police officers.
http://planet.infowars.com/offbeat/the-police-to-kill-or-not-to-kill
https://www.facebook.com/DavidLoryVanDerBeek/posts/687940137917820?stream_ref=10
Thanks for illustrating the dangers of anecdotal evidence, Greg.
As of 2006, 30 million American adults could be considered 9/11 truthers. The number is probably far greater now. You guys cite a dozen murders for these 30 million people over ten years. In the same time period, 270 million non-truthers have committed 160,000 murders--13,000 times as many as the truthers. Non-truthers murder their fellow citizens at a rate of 5925 per million (over ten years). Truthers murder at a rate of 0.4 per million. Thus non-truthers murder people at a rate 1,481,200 percent of that of the truthers.
Let's see...35000 divided by 5 = 7000. That's 7000 signatures (average) each week. They need 40,000 more signatures to reach 75,000, but at their current pace they will get 21,000 more in the next three weeks (average).
Hmmm...almost...
I like how Brian just pulls that 30 million number out of thin air. 30 million invisible Americans who agree that invisible explosives killed the husbands of invisible widows.
The number comes from polls taken in 2006 and reported in TIME Magazine, Ian.
The number comes from polls taken in 2006 and reported in TIME Magazine, Ian.
So in 2006, 30 million people "could be considered truthers" by a failed janitor who lives with his parents.
So now that we've dispensed with such irrelevant details, how about we try to find out how many people in 2014 agree with Brian Good's assertion that the WTC towers were destroyed by the Bush administration using magic spray-on thermite and invisible silent explosives?
How do you know where I live, Lian? Are you stalking me so you can force your way into my home and tie me up and give me decorating tips?
I never said anything about magic spray-on thermite and invisible silent explosives.
How do you know where I live, Lian?
Palo Alto. This is common knowledge, as is the fact that you have no job.
I never said anything about magic spray-on thermite and invisible silent explosives.
False. You've insisted many, many, many times that they were used in the destruction of the WTC towers.
As of 2006, 30 million American adults could be considered 9/11 truthers.
That's a bizarre claim. Are you inventing your own meanings for words again?
Offtopic: I somehow sensed this was coming, and now it's here. 9/11 Truth for Children.
Ian, "it's common knowledge" is hardly an answer to "how do you know?" Lots of things that are believed by fools to be common knowledge are not true.
I have never insisted that magic spray-on thermite and invisible silent explosives were used to destroy the towers. You are very confused.
RGT, I consider a 9/11 Truther to be anyone who acknowledges the need for new investigations and/or finds theories alternative to the government line plausible.
You guys have your own far more restrictive definition of "9/11 Truther": something along the lines of "pathetic moonbats who wear women's underwear and can't even mop floors and who believe George Bush caused modified attack babboons to plant invisible magic explosives in the twin towers."
My very conservative estimate of 30 million Truthers comes from the Scripps Howard poll of 2006, by which 16% of Americans were willing to tell a pollster that they considered it very likely or somewhat likely that explosives were planted in the twin towers. (Note this poll was taken before ae911truth even started.)
The same poll found that 36% of Americans believed it was very likely or somewhat likely that Bush officials knew the attacks were coming, but chose to do nothing because they wanted an excuse for war.
A 2007 Scripps Howard poll found that 62% of Americans considered it very likely or somewhat likely that "some people in the federal government had specific warnings of the 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington, but chose to ignore those warnings."
Last time I checked, 62% of Americans is well over 100 million. Thus my estimate of 30 million adult truthers is very, very conservative.
Still no data on how many people believe in 2014 that the Bush administration blew up the towers, which is what Brian believes.
More lying Iananity from Lyin Ian.
You live in a cartoon world, Mr. McGoo.
More fun stats:
Of those 30 to 150 million truthers, only 21,000 have bothered to sign the petition at ae911truth. That's a signing rate of 1/100th of 1% (of 150 million truthers) to 7/100ths of 1% (of 30 million truthers).
Consider that the 2200 architectural and engineering professionals who have signed the petition face many more inhibitions to signing than do ordinary citizens, because they are putting their professional reputations on the line and risking harm to their relationships with clients and colleagues.
The BLS tells us that in 2013 there were 2.8 million working in architecture and engineering in the USA. http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11.pdf
The 2200 who signed the ae911truth petition are 7/100ths of 1% of the 2.8 million BLS architects and engineers.
Their participation rate is either exactly the same as the participation rate of the 30 million truther population, or it is 7X the rate of the 150 million truther population--and this is despite the major professional inhibitions to signing.
The participation of the general USA population in the ae911truth petition is 7/1000ths of 1%. The participation of architectural and engineering professionals is
7/100ths of 1%--10X the signing rate of the general public, and despite the major professional inhibitions.
By contrast, how many of the 2.8 million architects and engineers in the USA are architects and engineers for the official story? I've seen a list of about 20. That's 7/10,000th of 1% of the 2.8 million. Consider that the signing rate of the general population on the ae911truth petition is 7/1000 of 1%--10X more.
So the ae911truth architects and engineers have a signing rate of the ae911truth petition 100X that of the architects and engineers for the official story. And get this--every one of the 20 on the official story list has professional ties to NIST.
Math may be hard, but it can be quite illuminating.
Yes, quite illuminating. And refreshing to know that only .07% of architects and engineers in this country are stupid/insane enough to join Richard Gage's ridiculous cult. This doesn't surprise me, as the more educated members of society would be less likely to be duped by Gage than a failed janitor who lives with his parents like Brian Good.
And how many have published critiques of NIST or a plausible alternative theory in reputable journals? Oh right, that's 0. Yah know, how science is actually done. Not with appeals to popularity and authority, and posting videos on youtube.
I would bring up how this is the same crap creationists do, but Brian will just hand wave it away.
Yes, Brian was just BRAGGING that Richard Gage's cult has .07% membership among architects and engineers. I guess when your life has been such a failure that you can't even afford a decent haircut, you're going to define success differently than normal people.
Well he was bragging by making up excuses, the same way he makes up excuses why they can't get a critique or alternative hypothesis published in any reputable journal on the planet.
By contrast, how many of the 2.8 million architects and engineers in the USA are architects and engineers for the official story?
All individuals who fail to sign the ae911truth petition may be deemed in favor of the official story. Any other conclusion is illogical and speculative.
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I dunno, RGT. I would expect the electrical engineers designing Google's driverless cars to explicitly disavow the "magic thermite" theory of 9/11. After all, an unemployed janitor in Palo Alto is demanding it.
Ian, the ae911truth architects and engineers have a signing rate of the ae911truth petition 100X that of the architects and engineers for the official story. And get this--every one of the 20 on the official story list has professional ties to NIST.
GMS, here are some papers that might not interest you:
February 2014 | Reassessing the Plastic Hinge Model for Energy Dissipation of Axially Loaded Columns
Journal: Journal of Structures, Vol. 2014, Article ID 795257, 7 pages, 2014. doi:10.1155/2014/795257.
Authors: Dr. Robert Korol and Dr. K. S. Sivakumaran (McMaster University)
Link: http://www.hindawi.com/journals/jstruc/2014/795257/
June 2013 | Some Misunderstanding Related to WTC Collapse Analysis
Journal: International Journal of Protective Structures (Vol. 4, No. 2 / June 2013)
Authors: Dr. Gregory Szuladzinski (PhD, Structural Mechanics), Tony Szamboti (ME), and Richard Johns.
Link: http://multi-science.metapress.com/content/bl60385h25254748/
Download Preview (PDF): Preview – Some Misunderstandings of WTC Collapse Analysis
April 2013 | Conspiracy Theory in America (Book)
Publisher: University of Texas Press
Author: Dr. Lance DeHaven-Smith (Florida State University)
Link: http://www.utexas.edu/utpress/books/dehcon.html
November 2012 | Energy Absorption Potential of Light Weight Concrete Floors
Journal: Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering (Vol. 39, pp: 1193-1201)
Authors: Dr. Robert Korol and Dr. K. S. Sivakumaran (McMaster University)
Link: http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/l2012-107?journalCode=cjce#.ULJfcmfK3GE
March 2012 | Launching the U.S. Terror War: the CIA, 9/11, Afghanistan, and Central Asia
Journal: The Asia-Pacific Journal
Author: Dr. Peter Dale Scott (University of California, Berkeley)
Link: http://japanfocus.org/-Peter_Dale-Scott/3723
February 2012 | Temporal Considerations in Collapse of WTC Towers
Journal: Int. J. Structural Engineering, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp.189-207
Author: Dr. Gregory Szuladzinski (PhD, Structural Mechanics; FEIA & Member of ASCE)
Link: http://www.inderscience.com/offer.php?id=47711
September 2011 | Conspiracy Theories and Stylized Facts
Journal: Journal for Peace and Justice Studies 21.2 (Fall 2011)
Author: Dr. Kurtis Hagen (SUNY)
Download Paper (PDF): Kurt Hagen – Conspiracy Theories and Stylized Facts
June 2011 | Was There Abnormal Trading in the S&P 500 Index Options Prior to the September 11 Attacks?
Journal: Multinational Finance Journal, 2011, vol. 15, no. 1/2, pp. 1-46
Authors: Wing-Keung Wong (Hong Kong Baptist University) and Dr. Howard E. Thompson (University of Wisconsin-Madison) et al
Link: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1588523
Download Paper (PDF): Abnormal Trading in the S&P 500 Index Options Prior to the September 11 Attacks
April 2011 | Collapse Time Analysis of Multi-Story Structural Steel Buildings
Journal: The Open Civil Engineering Journal (Bentham Open) (Vol.5, 2011, pp. 25-35)
Authors: Dr. Robert Korol (McMaster University) et al
Link: http://www.benthamscience.com/open/tociej/articles/V005/25TOCIEJ.pdf
RGT, your belief that silence equals support for the official story is unjustified and unscientific.
Yes, this is normally the part of the thread where Brian gets hysterical and starts repeating the same spam he posted earlier, or starts posting pointless lists. Here, he does both!
And let's remember: Brian is bragging about the fact that 99.93% of architects and engineers are not interested in Gage's nonsense. That's "success" to the failed janitor who lives with his parents.
Ian, you still can not name one engineer who is willing to publicly stick his neck out and endorse NIST's collapse sequence.
Uncle Steve.
"Uncle Steve" is not a name, "Ian".
When did he endorse NIST's collapse sequence publicly?
"Uncle Steve" is not a name, "Ian".
Well, his name is Steve. I just refer to him as "Uncle Steve" since he is my uncle.
When did he endorse NIST's collapse sequence publicly?
A while ago.
How can I verify that your Uncle Steve publicly endorsed NIST's collapse scenario?
How can I verify that your Uncle Steve publicly endorsed NIST's collapse scenario?
I can post a link to the article where he endorses NIST.
But you're lying, so you won't.
So let's get back to the point: The 2.8 million architects and engineers have a signing rate of the ae911truth petition 100X that of the public statement rate of the architects and engineers for the official story. And get this--every one of the 20 on the official story list has professional ties to NIST.
Yes, we get your point. You think that having 0.07% of architects an engineers in your crackpot cult is a "success".
Compared to the 0.0007% who subscribe to the official theory, it's an enormous success.
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That leaves 99.93% who are afraid to venture an opinion. They are not experts in high-rise design, after all, so they can tell themselves it would be irresponsible to have one.
No, that leaves 99.93% who are don't care what some tiny crackpot cult thinks and aren't going to waste their time refuting ideas about magic thermite elves just because some mentally I'll unemployed janitor is demanding it.
People are busy with work, family, friends (you wouldn't understand sine you have no job, friends, or family) and aren't interested jb wasting time on nonsense.
Also, I'll leave it to others to laugh at an unemployed college drop out babbling about how others have no expertise in high rise design.
Lyin Ian, the lyin Iananity of your evidence-free claims about me is not a point.
30 million people is not a crackpot cult.
You give us only two choices: either the official story is correct or Santa Claus did it by magic. Obviously that false dichotomy is illogical and downright stooopid.
It seems to me that if 30, 50, 70 million people think the towers might have been blown up, then your 2.8 million architects and engineers have a civic duty to come forward and show where they're wrong. They won't. They're afraid to venture an opinion.
The "Good Germans" of the 1930s and early 1940s were busy with family and friends. Neither they, nor you, are appropriate models for right conduct today.
30 million did not join Richard Gage's crackpot cult. 2200 did. Math is hard.
You have no evidence that 30, 50, 70 million people believe that that the Bush administration blew up the towers.
And yes, good people in Germany did not join the Nazis, just as good Americans don't join fascist crackpot cults like 9/11 truth today.
Actually, 21,000 have signed the petition, Ian. I'm sorry that arithmetic is a challenge for you.
The 30 million comes from polls conducted in 2006 and reported in TIME Magazine. Maybe if you would read the posts before responding to them you wouldn't be so confused.
My very conservative estimate of 30 million Truthers comes from the Scripps Howard poll of 2006, by which 16% of Americans were willing to tell a pollster that they considered it very likely or somewhat likely that explosives were planted in the twin towers. (Note this poll was taken before ae911truth even started.)
The same poll found that 36% of Americans believed it was very likely or somewhat likely that Bush officials knew the attacks were coming, but chose to do nothing because they wanted an excuse for war.
A 2007 Scripps Howard poll found that 62% of Americans considered it very likely or somewhat likely that "some people in the federal government had specific warnings of the 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington, but chose to ignore those warnings."
The "Good Germans" did not oppose the Nazis, is the point, Ian. They were too busy enjoying life, and by their silent consent they share the guilt of their fellow citizens who were active Nazis.
So 0.007% of Americans agree with Richard Gage's idiotic cult. Thanks for proving my point.
The rest is typical hysterical spam from a failed janitor who wants to pretend that 9/11 truth isn't dead.
Hey Brian, have the widows had their questions answered yet?
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!
Ian, given your arithmetical incompetence, your statistical incompetence is no surprise.
Let alone your reliance on lying iananity from lying Ianinny.
Ian, given your arithmetical incompetence, your statistical incompetence is no surprise.
Let alone your reliance on lying iananity from lying Ianinny.
Yup, this is the kind of hysterical squealing I expect from a failed janitor who can't even afford a decent haircut, let alone convince anyone of his beliefs that the Bush administration blew up the WTC towers with magic spray-on thermite and invisible silent explosives.
So thanks for substituting hysterical Ian-squeal for actual points, Ian.
It seems to me that if 30, 50, 70 million people think the towers might have been blown up, then your 2.8 million architects and engineers have a civic duty to come forward and show where they're wrong. They won't. They're afraid to venture an opinion.
It seems to me that if 30, 50, 70 million people think the towers might have been blown up, then your 2.8 million architects and engineers have a civic duty to come forward and show where they're wrong. They won't. They're afraid to venture an opinion.
Yes, if 30, 50, 70 million people subscribe to your beliefs, then maybe they would come forward and show where you're wrong. I mean, biologists do that because so many Americans are creationists. However, since only approximately 0.007% of the American public agrees with your lunatic views, there's no point in having serious architects and engineers waste their time.
What biologists come forward to combat creationists?
Only 0.0007% of architects and engineers subscribe to the official theory.
False. 99.93% of architects and engineers subscribe to the official theory. The ones who disagree are the 2200 losers who joined Gage's cult.
And Richard Dawkins is a well-known biologist who fights against creationism.
You have zero evidence to support your Ianane claims, Ianinny.
You have zero evidence to support your Ianane claims, Ianinny.
Squeal squeal squeal!
Poor Brian. He failed out of college and can't hold down a job (so he lives with his parents). No wonder he doesn't understand how statistics works and gets hysterical when people express skepticism about his claim that 70 million Americans believe in magic thermite elves.
Also, Brian, you didn't answer my question about the widows' questions above. I told Laurie Van Auken that you won't answer questions and she burst into tears.
Why do you take depraved pleasure in the widows' pain? What's wrong with you?
You have zero evidence to support your Ianane claims, Ianinny.
Yup, this is the part of the thread where Brian knows he's completely pwn3d, so he just repeats the same squealspam. It's not like he has the intelligence to write something else.
Ho hum, another day gone by without the widows having their questions answered, or a new investigation, or anyone agreeing that Willie Rodriguez is a fraud.
Yes, Ianinny, it's another day of the USA!!! USA!!! USA!!! shitting on the 9/11 widows. And you seem to think that the fact that they're shit on every day means they should continue to be shit on every day. Well, decent people disagree with you.
As for Willie, can you explain why his "fabulous" photos haven't been picked up anywhere else on the internet? Not even on Press TV? Not even on Veterans Today?
Not even on Phil Jayhan's LetsRollForums.com, which earlier was sufficiently interested in Willie to issue a 3/11 press release calling Willie out as a fraud, and a 10/11 thread asking if Willie should be put to death.
Nobody cares about Willie. Nobody loves you when you get that way. Not even his sock puppets CBSF and sabba can muster any enthusiasm for libel.
The truth movement (with the exception of WeAreChange and the Loose Change guys and Jack Blood) has been wise to Willie since November of 2007. It was really a struggle for some of them to admit it. Apparently Willie was quite a charming guy and they really, really wanted to believe him.
Having been a janitor myself when I was in college, I knew that simply being a janitor does not turn one into a saint. I really, really wanted to believe Willie too. I mean, what a great story! "Hero janitor sues president!"
It was only because I was asked to write a review of his DVD that I took a look at his story with a critical eye. I watched it one time through, and drafted a favorable review. Great story, good presentation, good context--good DVD for 9/11 newbies, I wrote. And then, because I was writing for publication, I watched the DVD again. And I watched an internet video of a different Willie presentation. I noticed that Willie cried in exactly the same place, where he was telling the story of the woman cut in half by the glass. And I noticed that he was claiming that the people he claimed he saved, the people on the office floors, were locked in. He was claiming that he had to unlock fire exit door to let people out.
Every architect, engineer, security guard, janitor, locksmith, and lawyer in the world knows that's a lie.
It seems that Willie's Friends of Randi at SLC don't know it.
Nobody cares about your homosexual obsession with Rodriguez.
Also, there are no widows.
You're just trying to get me to say something homophobic.
Let's get back to the math. That's much more interesting than a fashion-obsessed urban male (that would be you) and his blindness to the blatant fraudulence of a failed janitor (that would be Willie) who claims he spent the years of the Clinton prosperity all alone picking up cigarette butts and used condoms in the stairwells of the World Trade Center.
Ri-i-i-i-ght. If you believe that, you're probably dumb enough to think that hundreds of people were trapped behind locked fire exit doors on 9/11.
Yes, the math that says that 0.07% of architects and engineers agree with Richard Gage. Let's get back to that and your initial bragging about it that has now turned to hysterical squealing once we started mocking you for it.
I enjoy it when you let your guard down and start saying what you really think. It's hilarious how abysmally stupid you are.
The math says that 0.0007%
of the 2.8 million architects and engineers agree with the NIST report--even if you count a non-existent expert like your "Uncle Steve".
100X that number were willing to put their professional reputations on the line and agree with Mr. Gage.
99.93% of them are too cowardly to express an opinion. You unjustifiably assume that their silence signifies agreement with NIST. A more thoughtful view is that their silence might represent a fear of the truth.
False.
You're lying, Ian.
Ian, you claimed that "only approximately 0.007% of the American public agrees with your lunatic views."
That's a lie. As of 2006, the Scripps-Howard poll showed, 16% of Americans believed it was likely that explosives were planted in the twin towers. That's 45 million people. That was before ae911truth started, and that ignores the fact that some people sampled might be reluctant to tell a pollster on the phone what they believe about the towers.
Of course I am not among that 45 million. I don't "believe" or dis-believe anything about explosives in the towers. I believe there's been a coverup, that the investigations have been shoddy and we need new ones that are actually devoted to finding the truth.
Scripps-Howard found in 2007 that 62% of Americans considered it very likely or somewhat likely that "some people in the federal government had specific warnings of the 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington, but chose to ignore those warnings."
That warnings were ignored is not a "lunatic view"--it is a fact. It seems that in 2007, almost 200 million Americans were aware of that fact.
You and your invisible "Uncle Steve" and your 20 bought-and-paid-for "experts" can not make any credible claim that you represent the majority. The facts say otherwise.
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